If so, it will be a Middle East reality check the foreign policy establishment never saw coming. And Donald Trump did.

Is Saudi Arabia on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords? 

If so, it would represent the most dramatic geopolitical realignment in the Middle East since the Camp David Accords — and a complete repudiation of decades of Western foreign-policy dogma. The most powerful Arab state normalizing relations with Israel, even after the latter’s all-out war against Hamas following the October 7, 2023 massacre, would be nothing short of seismic. It would also expose a long-held Washington fantasy — that the Palestinian issue is the central key to unlocking peace in the region. 

But is it? 

And if it isn’t now — was it ever?

The truth is simple: The Abraham Accords of 2020 could never have happened without Saudi Arabia’s quiet blessing. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan did not wake up one morning ready to normalize relations with Israel. Riyadh signaled, tacitly but unmistakably, that the Arab world could shift. It was the Saudi Crown Prince who opened the door. But diplomatic doors can close, too — and the Biden administration slammed this one shut.

President Biden entered office determined to freeze out Saudi Arabia. On the campaign trail, he declared the kingdom a “pariah,” insulted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and embraced the Obama-era mantra that the U.S. must put “daylight” between itself and Israel. Washington’s foreign-policy establishment convinced itself that normalizing with Iran — while scolding Riyadh — was the morally superior path. We lived through the disastrous consequences of that choice for a decade.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump — love him or hate him — chose a different path. He confronted Iran directly, embraced Israel publicly, and cultivated warm, transactional ties with the Gulf monarchies. Diplomacy is often criticized for its “optics,” but Middle Eastern politics are built on optics: respect, strength, clarity, and the perception of mutual benefit. Trump understood that; Biden did not.

Now, five years after the Abraham Accords were signed, Riyadh’s long game is becoming unmistakable. Saudi Arabia wants modernization, deterrence against Iran, access to Western technology, and a seat at the global table. It also wants stability — a commodity Iran has spent years burning down through proxy militias in Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria.

And this is where understanding the region’s ideological divide matters.

Take two nations: Saudi Arabia and Iran. On paper, both adhere — or in the case of Iran’s ayatollahs, profess to adhere — to extremely conservative, traditional interpretations of Islam. Many Muslim-majority societies are more secular in practice, with varying degrees of religious law and cultural influence. But Saudi Arabia and Iran remain, at least structurally, deeply conservative.

Yet they behave nothing alike.

Iranian officials lie openly about their support for proxy terror groups and laugh while doing it. They know the West knows they are lying. They simply don’t care. It’s a game — and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not some raving, uneducated zealot. He knows the West intimately; he understands its weaknesses. He has played Western governments exquisitely, using denials, negotiations, and faux-moderate diplomats to run out the clock while Iran expands its military and ideological footprint.

But the neighbors have finally had enough. Progressive, western ideologues might have fallen for the charade. Iran’s neighbors have not.

The tide is not merely turning against Iran. It may have entirely turned already. The Arab world is increasingly unified in its belief that Iran — not Israel — is the region’s destabilizing force.

Consider what happened on New Year’s Eve two years ago — officials from the United Arab Emirates celebrated at the Western Wall in Jerusalem. That moment would have been unthinkable a decade ago. A deeply conservative Muslim nation praying openly in Judaism’s holiest site tells you everything you need to know about where the geopolitical winds are blowing.

Saudi Arabia sees the same winds — and is choosing to play a shrewd, deliberate game. Riyadh is in no rush. Why would it be? Whoever — American or Israeli — gets to claim the diplomatic victory of Saudi-Israeli normalization instantly earns a legacy-defining achievement. Peace between the two regional giants would redraw the entire political map of the Middle East. It might reset it completely.

And the stakes are not just for the region.

If Riyadh takes this step — even after Israel’s war against Hamas, even amid global protests accusing Israel of genocide — it will demonstrate a reality activists refuse to acknowledge: Middle Eastern nations do not share Western ideological obsessions. They care about power, stability, alliances, and survival — not campus slogans.

If Saudi Arabia ultimately joins the Abraham Accords, the symbolism will speak loudly: America’s most significant diplomatic breakthrough in the region in decades flowed from strength, clarity, and alignment — not lectures, empty promises, and apologies.

And yes — President Trump will absolutely take a victory lap. He will have earned it.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)